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The impact of the Web, computing, and electronics
The inventions of the Net and
the World
Wide Web by Tim
Berners-Lee (top picture) around 1990 has
revolutionized our lives as much as the wide-scale
introduction of TV at the beginnings of our 100 years. The middle
picture of the virtual Fermilab historical web marker (click for a
larger view) commemorates the introduction of the World Wide Web to
the Western Hemisphere by Fermilab and SLAC. The Web and the Net may
ultimately
have an impact of the magnitude of Columbus's discovery of America. The
Web rests on developments in electronics such as the transistor and
the integrated circuit, the digital computer that began its' life in
the forties, on computer programs, and the rise of
large-scale data bases. Many of these developments have been
exponential. Moore's law (click for a larger view) charts the
number
of transistors on a chip. The
number of transistors per chip has doubled every 18-24 months. This has
had an
astonishing impact and surprisingly, this trend may continue
throughout
our one hundred years. Similar trends hold for digital storage media
and databases.
Meanwhile computer speeds have increased accordingly.
Taken together these developments strongly impact and interact with the
other four great pillars of our 100 years - Quarks, the
Big Bang, Space, and DNA.
The future of computing
Speed - The speed of the human brain is 200*103 Giga
computations (floating point operations)/s or flops. (For information on the
future of computing and AI see Kurzweil.)
That is
about 105 times
a good personal computer. Kurzweil
calls the crossover point when a computer's power exceeds the brain a
singularity. A better designation might be “phase change”.
The crossover point could be somewhere between 2020 to 2030 at
the present rate of progress. Modern QCD or Quantum Chromodynamics
computing machines at Fermilab
and elsewhere are already in the
1000 Giga Flops range. Quantum
computing is on the horizon and is potentially much more
powerful.
Problems and challenges
- Computer
viruses are
a serious and growing problem for computing and the Web. The
approaching Kurzweil “singularity” may pose serious challenges. Qualifying internet and World
Wide Web• programs and
databases is ever more important and difficult. Finally better theories of
computing, knowledge, and mind are sorely needed.
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